Thanksgiving airfare is up 31%, but airlines have a bigger problem

Thanksgiving flights are getting more expensive for Americans, but airlines charging record fares face even bigger bills because of fuel costs.

A $100 increase in one year

Average domestic round-trip fares for Thanksgiving have climbed to $402, up 31% from $307 last year, according to Hopper data cited by The Wall Street Journal/

It's the third consecutive annual increase, bringing the total rise since 2023 to $133, or 49%.

For comparison, Thanksgiving tickets averaged just $188 in 2020, when pandemic restrictions devastated air travel. Christmas fares are also up 23% from a year ago.

Airlines' $4 billion jet fuel problem

Jet fuel prices have surged 91% since the Iran war began, reaching $4.50 per gallon. The increase is taking a substantial bite out of airline earnings, even as carriers charge more for tickets.

United Airlines offers a striking example. Its third-quarter revenue rose 17% to $17.9 billion, but fuel expenses jumped 61% to $4.84 billion, up $1.84 billion from a year earlier.

Delta faced a similar problem. Its third-quarter revenue increased 21% to $20.2 billion, but fuel expenses surged 69% to $4.35 billion. Despite the revenue increase, net income fell 47% to $756 million.

Together, the two airlines spent roughly $9.2 billion on fuel in just three months, up $3.6 billion from a year earlier.

📌 Bottom line: The surge in fuel costs helps explain why airline stocks have struggled despite rising fares and revenues. The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) is down nearly 7% this year, badly trailing the S&P 500.