Is the new Assassin’s Creed good enough to save Ubisoft (UBI)?

For French video game publisher Ubisoft (UBI), another flop could mean game over.

It’s rare for a video game company to have everything riding on a single release. But things have gotten so dire that Ubisoft’s future may hinge on the success of its latest installment in the best-selling Assassin’s Creed franchise.

Assassin’s Creed Shadows, released Thursday, is a “make-or-break moment” for the company, according to Reuters.

UBI stock has dropped 30.9% over the past year and is down 70% since 2020. The company’s 2025 guidance also disappointed investors, with net bookings projected at €1.95 billion—down from €2.32 billion a year earlier.

Ubisoft is now worth 77% less than when its last Assassin’s Creed game launched in 2020. Over the past year, it’s also undergone a wave of layoffs and studio closures.

“The release of Assassin’s Creed Shadows is a bit of an existential moment for Ubisoft,” said Joost Van Dreunen, a lecturer at NYU’s Stern School of Business. “If it does really well, it could go a long way toward repairing its financial position.”

When Ubisoft released Star Wars: Outlaws last summer, the company expected a hit. Instead, it bombed — setting Ubisoft into crisis mode, said Stephen Totilo of Game File.

That failure prompted the company to delay the release of Shadows by several months to continue development.

Things escalated in December when Reuters reported that Ubisoft shareholders were in talks over a possible buyout. The Guillemot family—founders and largest shareholders—have reportedly been in discussions with Tencent and others about a management-led buyout that would let them retain control.

Tencent, China’s largest gaming company and social network, is also Ubisoft’s second-largest shareholder.

In September, activist investor AJ Investments, a minority shareholder, said it was working with private equity firms to push for a sale.

Culture-war headwinds

Even before launch, Assassin’s Creed Shadows faced backlash from parts of the gaming community.

The game features a Black samurai and a female assassin — prompting criticism from some for being “woke” and adhering to DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) policies.

Elon Musk weighed in last summer, posting on X that “DEI kills art,” a remark aimed at the game’s diverse cast. Whether this backlash impacts sales is still unclear. So far, early reviews have been mixed.

“I don’t think Shadows will flop, but I think even a mediocre performance could lead to significant changes at Ubisoft,” Totilo told NPR. “This is a company doing a lot of emergency cost-cutting—it’s considering different ways to break the company up.”