This Medicare provider is quietly beating the market

When the market goes south, it pays to have a direct line with Uncle Sam.

On the back of growing Medicare Advantage memberships, Clover Health Investments (CLOV) peaked at $4.87 shortly after President Trump’s inauguration, marking its highest close since Covid.

While CLOV stock is 31% off that peak, it’s still up nearly 8% year-to-date. By comparison, the S&P 500 is down 4.5% this year, while the small-cap Russell 2000 has shed 9.4%.

Clover has outperformed thanks to its unique business model: It provides Medicare Advantage insurance plans, meaning it has a contract with the one client who never runs out of money, the U.S. government.

The company operates in at least 11 states, covering Medicare beneficiaries in New York, Texas, Arizona, and more.

On Feb. 27, Clover reported full-year 2024 results, showing a dramatic turnaround — flipping from a loss to a $70 million profit.

“2024 was a defining year for Clover,” said CFO Peter Kuiper. “With this momentum, we are well positioned in 2025 and beyond to invest in new membership growth and Clover Assistant technology while maintaining strong [...] profitability.”

For 2025, the company expects adjusted earnings to stay around $70 million, with insurance revenue topping $1.8 billion. Memberships could reach as high as 107,000, marking a 30% year-over-year jump.

Clover has AI edge, but can it catch up with competition?

Medicare Advantage plans offer private insurance alternatives to Medicare recipients, bundling extra benefits like dental, vision, and fitness programs. The best part? The government foots the bill, paying private insurers to manage coverage for existing Medicare recipients.

According to health policy firm KFF, Medicare Advantage enrollment has more than doubled since 2010. As of 2024, it covers 54% of all Medicare beneficiaries — 32.8 million people — accounting for $462 billion in federal Medicare spending.

With numbers like these, it’s no surprise Medicare Advantage is big business for insurers like UnitedHealth Group, CVS Health, and Humana.

What sets Clover apart from the industry’s biggest players is its AI-driven approach. The company uses artificial intelligence to streamline traditional fee-for-service healthcare, aggregating patient data to improve clinician recommendations.

In theory, Clover’s AI could drive better health outcomes—especially if its data can catch diseases before they worsen. But Clover is still playing catch-up.

As of 2024, UnitedHealth dominates the market with 29% of total Medicare Advantage enrollments, followed by Humana (18%), Blue Cross Blue Shield (14%), and CVS Health (14%).

For now, Clover’s government-backed revenue stream is keeping it afloat — but to stay competitive, it needs to scale fast.