More tariffs are ahead as Trump is ‘embracing uncertainty,' warns former Trump official

If you were hoping Trump would end his back-and-forth on tariffs to give your portfolio some relief, that's not going to happen, according to Jeff Gerrish, a former deputy U.S. trade representative during Trump's first term.

In an interview with Allison Nathan, a senior research strategist at Goldman Sachs, Gerrish said he believes that Trump's biggest tariff moves are still ahead. He doesn't think the uncertainty will deter his administration, quite the contrary.

"The president and his administration are indeed embracing uncertainty because they can use it to help them achieve their goals," Gerrish said.

"In their view, such uncertainty will help bring back manufacturing and jobs to the US, where the operating climate is more certain. So, I wouldn't expect an end to uncertainty anytime soon."

Trump's erratic decision-making was on display again Thursday as he paused the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for goods covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—the free trade pact between the three nations.

Trump said in a recent statement that the pause on tariffs would expire on April 2.

Although the temporary reprieve initially seemed like good news for markets, the major indexes all turned lower yesterday, signaling renewed fears of tariffs and uncertainty

Will 'the pain' on the U.S. economy cause Trump to pull back on his tariffs?

Since many analysts speculate that Trump is using tariffs as a negotiating tactic, there's the question of how much economic sacrifice the Trump administration is willing to accept.

Jim Solloway, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at SEI, suggests that Trump's hand could be forced by economic factors at home, leading to at least a reduction in the level of the tariffs.

"Our base case is that these across-the-board tariffs at 25% will last only a few months, given the pain that they will inflict on the U.S. economy," he said in a note.

"Although they may not disappear entirely, there may be a move to reduce the tariff on vehicles, parts, and other items that may be in short supply in the U.S. An elimination of the tariff on petroleum is also a possibility."

For now, though, the Trump administration appears committed to playing hardball.

In a speech delivered on Thursday to the Economic Club of New York, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed concerns over inflation that Americans might face because of the tariffs.

"Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream," he said. "The American Dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility, and economic security. For too long, the designers of multilateral trade deals have lost sight of this."

Investors have no option but to brace for what's to come after the Trump administration issues a comprehensive review of its trade policy on April 1, which could lead to more tariff actions, according to Gerrish.

"Everyone needs to buckle up, because the president is just getting started and what lies ahead will likely be even more unpredictable than during his first term," he said.