Without Big Tech, the market falters — with it, records beckon


Wall Street’s recent rebound has been mainly powered by technology stocks, with institutional investors leading the charge as the most aggressive net buyers since record-keeping began in 2008.

Last week alone, institutions snapped up a net $3 billion in tech stocks, according to data from Bank of America.

“As a share of total market cap, this ranks in the 98th percentile historically,” wrote The Kobeissi Letter, a markets commentator.

ADVERTISEMENT

In total, U.S. tech stocks attracted $4.4 billion in net inflows during the week, more than four times the combined inflows into all other sectors, the commentator added.

Technology has long held an outsized influence on the U.S. stock market. In 2024, the tech and communication services sectors accounted for 56.5% of the S&P 500’s total returns, according to Statista.

Without tech and communication services, the S&P 500 would have returned just 11% last year, less than half its actual 25% gain.

However, even tech leadership is highly concentrated. Morningstar reports that just eight companies — Nvidia, Apple, Meta Platforms, Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Broadcom — were responsible for over half the gains in the Morningstar U.S. Market Index last year.

With tech stocks doing much of the heavy lifting, the S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite Index are back in positive territory for the year, a feat that would have seemed highly improbable just a few months ago.

New record highs within reach

The S&P 500 closed Thursday less than 1% below its all-time high, a sign of the market’s resilience despite lingering concerns from the Trump-era tariff wars.

ADVERTISEMENT

The rally has reignited debate over valuations, with the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings back above the five-year and ten-year moving averages.

Still, as DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas pointed out, “Price earnings multiples are a function of investor confidence, which is a constantly moving target and has very little in the way of natural limits on either the upside or downside.”

Investor sentiment also got a boost this week from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who told Congress that “inflation’s in a really good place,” even with some price pressures expected in the coming months.

While Powell ruled out near-term rate cuts, he also pushed back against fears of an imminent recession.

Currently, futures markets say there’s a more than 90% chance that the Fed will resume rate cuts at its September meeting.


ADVERTISEMENT

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are markedmarked