Forge Global just delivered its strongest revenue quarter since going public, but the stock barely moved.
FRGE stock closed flat at $0.57 on Thursday, even after the company preannounced a big Q1 2025 beat largely driven by a surge in institutional trading and a rebound in private markets.
Forge’s core marketplace for private shares generated $15.8 million in net revenue — 41% above UBS estimates and nearly double last quarter’s.
Trading volume also jumped 132% thanks to several large institutional block trades and carry-over momentum from late 2024’s post-election optimism.
“FRGE’s best revenue quarter as a public company,” wrote UBS analyst Alex Kramm. But that strength didn’t translate to the bottom line.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at -$9.2 million, missing UBS and other Wall Street bank targets. Margins were squeezed by one-off costs—CFO transition expenses, increased offshore tech headcount, and seasonal payroll taxes.
Adjusted operating expenses ran 26% above UBS forecasts, reflecting the company’s continued investment push.
“While the update is clearly a positive, we are not convinced it will drive an outsized reaction in the shares as the outlook has gotten more uncertain with recent market volatility,” the note said.
Private markets rebound
The trading jump mirrors a broader trend. Institutional interest in private shares is rising as confidence slowly returns.
Forge reported $692 million in volume for the quarter — a 164% increase from a year ago. But its net take rate slipped to 2.3%, down from 3.2% last year, reflecting a higher mix of low-margin block trades.
Still, management sees the shift as constructive. Forge raised its FY26 revenue forecast to $107 million and bumped its EBITDA outlook for that year to -$6.7 million, nudging closer to breakeven.
The company continues to pitch its long-term thesis: a growing need for liquidity among startup employees, and institutional investors looking to gain exposure to private tech before IPO.
With more than 1,200 unicorns globally and a nearly $4 trillion private market, Forge believes its platform is increasingly essential.
A lot of upside, but also uncertainty
Despite the topline beat, investors remain cautious.
Forge is still burning cash, and the path to breakeven hinges on sustaining revenue growth while keeping costs in check. UBS reiterated its Buy rating and $2 price target — more than 250% above current levels — based on a 3x FY26 revenue multiple.
But as Kramm noted, “the outlook has gotten more uncertain with recent market volatility.”
Whether Forge closes that valuation gap comes down to one thing: proving it can convert trading momentum into sustainable margin gains.
For now, even a record quarter isn’t quite enough.
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