Trump’s $200 billion shock post sends Nvidia into orbit
A single Truth Social post by President Trump signaled a major shift in U.S. chip-export policy toward China, and instantly added roughly $200 billion to Nvidia’s (NVDA) market value in after-hours trading on Monday.
In the post, Trump stated that the United States will permit Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to be shipped to approved customers in China, marking a notable departure from the strict export controls enforced under both the Biden administration and his own.
The move is significant because the H200 is one of Nvidia’s most advanced AI accelerators, essential for training and deploying large-scale artificial intelligence models.
Previous restrictions sharply limited U.S.–China AI chip trade; reopening the door, even with conditions attached, amounts to a recalibration of policy rather than a continuation of full export barriers.
Trump also claimed that China will pay a 25% fee to the United States under the arrangement, effectively a tariff-like surcharge. However, the biggest immediate beneficiary is Nvidia.
The company has repeatedly warned that export limits were cutting off its fastest-growing market.
Restoring access to China, the world’s second-largest AI hardware market, could also reduce pressure on Nvidia to design “watered-down” chips solely to comply with U.S. rules.
In the short term, the policy shift points toward stronger revenue prospects for Nvidia, reflected in the surge in after-hours trading.
“Jensen Huang has won again”
Nvidia shares surged moments after Trump’s post, climbing toward $190 in after-hours trading. As The Kobeissi Letter noted, the chipmaker added roughly $200 billion in market value within hours.
“For months, Nvidia has been forecasting zero chip sales to China,” The Kobeissi Letter said.
“Today, the China market is partially returning,” it added — concluding that CEO Jensen Huang “has won again.”
The China equation is critical for Nvidia. Even after posting blockbuster third-quarter earnings, the company’s China business had faltered amid escalating trade tensions, Yahoo Finance reported.
“Sizable purchase orders never materialized in the quarter due to geopolitical issues and the increasingly competitive market in China,” Nvidia chief financial officer Colette Kress told shareholders during the earnings call.
Even with export restrictions assumed, Nvidia projected fourth-quarter revenue of $65 billion, plus or minus 2%, which is well above Wall Street’s estimate of approximately $62 billion.
Analysts say that allowing H200 exports, even on a limited, case-by-case basis, could help revive Nvidia’s China business by restoring access to one of its largest and fastest-growing markets.
The shift could ultimately boost revenue further by reinstating orders that had been lost under earlier export rules.