Rivian (RIVN) goes all-in on self-driving, but Wall Street isn’t buying it
Rivian (RIVN) grabbed headlines Thursday after unveiling ambitious plans for an in-house autonomy stack and future robotaxi platform, positioning itself among a small group of automakers pursuing self-driving systems built from scratch.
The announcement, however, did little to sway investors, who remain in “show-me” mode as Rivian trims annual delivery forecasts and continues to navigate broader industry challenges.
The company drew significant attention online with the reveal of its custom-built self-driving computer and a full multi-modal sensor suite that will debut on the upcoming R2.
Rivian also introduced what it calls a “large driving model,” which electric-vehicle reviewer Kim Java described as “Tesla FSD-style end-to-end AI.”
The company plans to offer its autonomy package through a subscription model beginning early next year, priced at a one-time $2,500 fee or $49.99 per month, a structure that could help build recurring software revenue.
“AI is enabling us to create technology and customer experiences at a rate that is completely different from what we’ve seen in the past,” CEO RJ Scaringe said during the company’s “Autonomy and AI Day,” an event InvestorsObserver previously flagged as a potential catalyst for Rivian.
Although Rivian’s new technology puts it in the same conversation as the major electric-vehicle players, the company’s broader outlook remains constrained by slowing growth, a shrinking delivery forecast, and mounting financial pressures that continue to raise questions about its path to scale.
RIVN stock performance — more downside ahead?
Despite the excitement surrounding its autonomy announcements, Rivian shares fell more than 6% on Thursday, extending a five-day slide that has erased roughly 8% of the stock’s value. The company currently carries a market cap of just over $20 billion.
Even so, the stock remains up about 20% over the past 12 months.
Investor sentiment has cooled in recent months amid concerns that Rivian is struggling to justify its valuation.
In October, the company trimmed its full-year delivery forecast, citing headwinds such as the expiration of certain EV tax credits valued at up to $7,500 and rising import tariffs. Rivian now expects to deliver between 41,500 and 43,500 vehicles this year.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have also turned more cautious, downgrading the stock from “Equal-weight” to “Underweight.”
The investment bank pointed to slowing EV adoption, a tougher overall market backdrop, and persistent concerns about charging infrastructure and consumer demand. Rivian is also grappling with affordability challenges that weigh more heavily on premium-priced brands.
Morgan Stanley’s new price target — $12 per share — implies roughly 28% downside from current levels.