Nvidia (NVDA) stock is nearing a critical inflection point, one that could shape the path of the market rebound that’s been building since early April.
The California-based chip giant has done much of the heavy lifting for the S&P 500 rally. Now, technical analysts are watching closely to see if it has enough momentum left to keep the broader uptrend alive.
“Nvidia did the heavy lifting during the market rebound since April,” wrote The Maverick of Wall Street, a popular finance commentator on X. “Failure to make new highs at this point means the market is heading down.”
Nvidia did the heavy lifting during the market rebound since April. Failure to make new highs at this point means the market is heading down $NVDA pic.twitter.com/NzCOvtlWvo
undefined The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) June 1, 2025
The analyst highlighted a potential “head and shoulders” pattern on the chart, which is often associated with bearish reversals. He warned that if NVDA fails to break above its January high, the entire market could lose steam.
NVDA closed at $137 on Monday, about 8% below that peak.
Nvidia’s role in the post-April rally
Since bottoming out on April 4 — just after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement — Nvidia shares have surged 47%. In comparison, the S&P 500 is up 18%, and the Nasdaq has gained 25%.
That’s not surprising. With a $3.35 trillion market cap, Nvidia is now the second-largest publicly traded company behind Microsoft (MSFT), and its dominance in AI infrastructure and data centers has made it the bellwether of the post-Liberation Day tech rebound.
Not to mention, the company continues to report jaw-dropping growth.
In its latest earnings, Nvidia reported $44.1 billion in revenue, up 12% from the prior quarter and 69% year-over-year. The data center segment brought in $39.1 billion, rising 10% sequentially and 73% from a year earlier.
Net income surged 26% to $18.78 billion, and EPS rose 27% to 76 cents. For Q2, the company expects revenue to reach $45 billion — a sign that the chip war with China hasn’t stopped its growth engine just yet.
“More gas in the tank”?
While The Maverick sees a technical cliff approaching, others remain bullish.
“I feel really good about tech coming out of this earnings season,” said Brett Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial. “There’s still more gas in the tank.”
Ewing didn’t call out Nvidia specifically, but given the company’s scale and dominance in AI, it’s safe to say NVDA remains the stock to watch as this rally matures.
If it breaks higher, it could reignite another leg up for the market. But if the chart breaks down, it might not be the only domino to fall.
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