Nvidia (NVDA) stock has bounced back from a steep selloff earlier this year as investors recalibrate expectations for the world's most valuable chipmaker.
For the first time since February, NVDA is back in the green for 2025, recovering fully from a 30% slide that bottomed out in early April. The stock is now up 4.5% year-to-date, pushing its market capitalization back above $3.5 trillion.
NVDA stock predictions are also growing more positive. Analysts at Oppenheimer, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley have all reiterated their overweight rating, pegging $170 to $175 as a key price target.
That range aligns closely with the average estimate tracked by Barron’s, based on 67 individual analyst ratings, implying an 18% to 21% upside from current levels.
That's not bad for the world's second-most valuable company. But behind the recovery lurks an elephant in the room: What happens when the AI growth story starts to slow?
Earnings strong, but AI momentum may not last
Nvidia’s first-quarter results beat expectations across the board, with revenue hitting $44.1 billion and adjusted earnings reaching 96 cents per share.
The company’s dominant position in AI infrastructure appears largely insulated from U.S. export controls to China, at least for now.
But some strategists say that’s missing the bigger picture.
Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone called the recent bounce a “clearing event,” warning that “the reality is that, from here, the AI theme is for sale.”
“In AI, investors are worried about 2026 growth, not 2025,” he said. “Nasdaq 100 rallies will be used as liquidity events.”
That skepticism is spreading. Rallies once driven by AI euphoria are increasingly being viewed as exit ramps — not entry points — as concerns grow that AI-driven capex could decelerate.
AI headwinds could arrive sooner than expected
Back in March, Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for global AI server shipments, citing softening demand, production hurdles, and a murky product transition window.
The firm also warned that tariffs could further complicate the supply chain. As a result, it lowered price targets for companies tied to the AI hardware ecosystem.
Earnings reports already show signs of slowing. In February, chip architecture firm Arm Holdings issued a more conservative outlook, warning that sales of AI-powered PCs might fall short of expectations.
That’s not to say Nvidia’s growth engine is sputtering yet, but it does suggest that the runway may be shorter than bulls think.
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