Joby and Archer are quietly building the "Big Three" of flying cars

Joby Aviation (JOBY) and Archer Aviation (ACHR) have both taken off over the past year, but analysts argue the two aren’t battling for the same slice of the sky.

Instead, they’re carving out a “duopoly,” each targeting distinct corners of the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market.

That’s the pitch from Stocktwits host and analyst Shay Boloor, who recently pushed back on the idea that JOBY and ACHR are headed for a dogfight.

According to Boloor, Joby’s real competition is Blade Urban Air Mobility (BLDE), a helicopter and seaplane operator already running short-haul flights in the Northeast.

Blade is looking to integrate eVTOL aircraft into its fleet, putting it on a more direct collision course with Joby’s consumer aviation ambitions. Meanwhile, Joby works with the Department of Defense to embed its technology into military infrastructure.

Archer is doing something similar but leaning even harder into defense, positioning itself as a battlefield drone contractor rather than a flying taxi company.

“The duopoly is setting its lanes,” Boloor said, adding that this dynamic lowers the risk of the two cannibalizing each other’s growth.

Investors can think of Joby as a commercial eVTOL play, while Archer is pursuing more predictable government contracts for more reliable revenue.

Commercial eVTOL flights are expected to generate the lion’s share of industry revenue, according to Grand View Research. But defense contracts can smooth out the boom-and-bust swings common to early-stage aviation companies.

Joby and Archer soar despite red ink

Despite different strategies, both companies have rewarded early believers with massive gains.

Joby stock has rocketed 237% in the past 12 months, now trading above $17 and valuing the company at $14.4 billion. Archer has climbed 146% to over $9, with a market cap just over $6 billion.

Neither company is turning a profit yet, thanks to the long and expensive process of developing and certifying eVTOL aircraft. The silver lining is that both are beating Wall Street’s expectations for losses.

In Q1 2025, Joby reported an 11-cent per-share loss, better than analysts’ 19-cent forecast. Archer posted a 17-cent loss, topping estimates for 21 cents.

For now, investors are brushing off losses and betting big on what’s ahead. In a market hungry for high-conviction innovation plays, electric aviation is shaping up as one of the boldest bets of the decade.