Is Tesla (TSLA) about to flip a $7 trillion switch? Analyst says autonomy is near its “tipping point”
Tesla (TSLA) has been one of the weaker performers among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks this year, weighed down by intensifying electric-vehicle competition and the fallout from CEO Elon Musk’s high-profile political controversies.
However, new research suggests the narrative could soon shift, with analysts arguing that Tesla is approaching a pivotal moment in autonomous driving that could make the stock a “must own.”
Melius Research, a New York–based independent equity research firm, said in a new report that Tesla’s lead in autonomous driving is nearing a “tipping point.”
Led by analyst Rob Wertheimer, the firm argues that Tesla’s technology, data advantage, and vertically integrated approach could soon translate into extraordinary commercial leverage.
Wertheimer estimates the global transportation and mobility market at roughly $7 trillion and says autonomy is poised to permanently reshape it.
According to the report, the tipping point is emerging because the technology is finally reaching mainstream readiness, despite fewer than 1% of Americans having ever ridden in a self-driving car.
That low adoption rate means the first company to deploy autonomy at scale could command an enormous, largely untouched market.
Melius argues that Tesla is positioned to capture hundreds of billions of dollars in value over the next several years.
Most of that should come through high-margin Full Self-Driving (FSD) software subscriptions, potential robotaxi services, and per-mile cost advantages that could outcompete both legacy automakers and ride-hailing platforms.
How much revenue Tesla actually gets from autonomy
Currently, it’s difficult to determine how much Tesla earns from autonomous driving or FSD software, as the company doesn’t break out these numbers separately.
Instead, autonomy-related revenue is folded into the broader “Services & Other” category of its financial reports.
In the second quarter of 2025, Tesla reported $3.05 billion in Services & Other revenue, a 17% increase from the prior year.
By comparison, the company generated more than $16.6 billion in automotive revenue during the same period, highlighting that autonomy remains a relatively small line item in the context of Tesla’s overall business.
Still, Tesla emphasized several notable milestones, including the launch of its first robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, and the delivery of what it described as its first customer vehicle capable of fully autonomous operation.
Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions are central to its long-term strategy.
The company envisions a network of driverless electric vehicles operating as an on-demand transportation fleet, effectively allowing owners to use their Teslas as autonomous taxis while unlocking a high-margin revenue stream for the company.
Competition in this sector will be steep. Uber has announced plans to deploy a fleet of 20,000 autonomous electric vehicles, while Alphabet’s Waymo has already begun generating revenue in California and is preparing to expand into Europe.