For months, the spotlight in quantum computing has been on IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI), and D-Wave (QBTS), promising startups trying to commercialize one of tech’s most elusive frontiers.
But this week, IBM (IBM) forced Wall Street to look back at the original heavyweight.
On Tuesday, the company declared it has the “most viable path” to building the world’s first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer and that it plans to deliver by 2029.
Dubbed the IBM Quantum Starling, the machine would be capable of running 100 million quantum gates on 200 logical qubits. That’s a scale no other company has publicly mapped out with such confidence.
And the company believes that’s just the beginning.
IBM said it plans to follow Starling with a second machine, the IBM Quantum Blue Jay, which would boost that capacity to 1 billion quantum operations on 2,000 logical qubits.
If IBM hit that milestone, it could redefine what’s possible in computing, optimization, and simulation.
📍 A new roadmap for quantum
IBM says it’s been building toward this moment since 2020, updating a public roadmap that now stretches out through 2033.
“IBM is the only quantum computing organization in the world that will be capable of running quantum programs at the scale of hundreds of logical qubits and millions of quantum gates by the end of the decade,” the company said.
It’s a bold claim, especially in a field where timelines have often stretched decades beyond expectations. But even some of the industry’s most prominent skeptics are starting to soften.
Earlier this year, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sent quantum stocks tumbling when he suggested practical quantum machines were still 15 to 30 years away.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also downplayed quantum’s near-term prospects in a January podcast with Joe Rogan, calling major breakthroughs “a decade off at best.”
But Huang’s tune changed this week.
Speaking at Nvidia GTC Paris, he said the industry is now at an “inflection point” and that quantum systems are “within reach” of solving real-world problems “in the coming years.”
🧠 The old guard reclaims the narrative
IBM stock jumped 1.5% on Tuesday following the announcement, closing at a record $276. Since Big Blue isn’t typically seen as a high-flyer, the upswing caught some traders off guard.
$IBM starting to go parabolic here.
undefined Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) June 10, 2025
Never have I thought parabolic and IBM would be put in the same sentence.
But here we are… pic.twitter.com/Qebf0Mdb0h
But as quantum startups continue to build prototypes and pilot partnerships, IBM is leveraging its scale, R&D muscle, and hardware footprint to push toward full-scale commercialization.
“IBM is charting the next frontier in quantum computing,” CEO Arvind Krishna said.
“Our expertise across mathematics, physics, and engineering is paving the way for a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, one that will solve real-world challenges and unlock immense possibilities for business.”
For an industry long stuck in research mode, that kind of execution — and not just hype — could finally be what gets quantum across the finish line.
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