The U.S. freight recession is showing signs of deepening, with a key but often overlooked indicator flashing another potential warning for the transportation sector.
U.S. heavy truck sales — a leading economic indicator closely tied to freight demand, industrial activity, and business investment — have been in steady decline since 2023, according to data from Bloomberg and RSM US LLP.
Historically, heavy truck sales tend to drop before or during recessions, a pattern that has held mostly true since at least the late 1970s. The ongoing slide mirrors conditions seen in past downturns, reinforcing concerns that the freight industry is in a prolonged slump.
The decline aligns with what analysts are calling a “freight recession,” a period marked by falling freight volumes, shipping rates, and carrier profits.
“The trucking and freight industry has been in a prolonged downturn for three years, with little sign of recovery,” wrote journalist Walter Bloomberg, quoting Stifel analysts.
That assessment aligns with earlier reporting from InvestorsObserver, which noted that the Cass Freight Index — a broader measure tracking shipments across air, rail, and truck — plunged 9.3% year over year in August.
Perhaps more striking, August marked the 29th consecutive monthly decline, reflecting a multi-year contraction consistent with the collapse in heavy truck sales and underscoring the depth of the current freight downturn.
While freight-specific indicators continue to weaken, some economists caution that the overall economic picture remains mixed.
They point to solid consumer spending and GDP growth clouding the outlook and making it harder to predict whether the freight recession will spill over into the wider economy.
An economy filled with contradictions
Perhaps the biggest contradiction in the U.S. economy right now is the growing disconnect between accelerating GDP growth and a weakening labor market.
Government data recently revised second-quarter GDP growth upward to 3.8%, a sharp turnaround from the 0.6% decline recorded in the first quarter.
Yet, even as output strengthens, unemployment is edging higher, and job creation has slowed to a crawl.
According to Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok, there’s one key factor behind this divergence: productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence. Slok argues that as more companies adopt AI to streamline operations, they can boost profits and output even as hiring slows.
“The economy cannot be on the brink of a recession with a weaker labor market, and at the same time accelerating with stronger GDP growth,” Slok wrote, suggesting that AI-driven productivity is reshaping traditional economic signals.
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