As the U.S.–China trade war continues to disrupt global shipping routes, Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok says FedEx’s stock offers a telling signal of an impending slowdown in global trade.
“FedEx’s stock price is a leading indicator of global trade,” Slok wrote in a Friday note, pointing out that the company’s share price typically leads global trade volumes by about three months, making it a useful proxy for international commerce.
Since at least the early 2000s, FedEx’s stock movements have closely tracked global trade flows with a short lag. Historically, when the stock declines, trade volumes tend to weaken in the following months.
FedEx shares have fallen sharply in 2025, down 19% year-to-date to around $228. The drop comes despite the company reporting stronger-than-expected profit and revenue in its fiscal fourth quarter. Its forward outlook, however, fell short of expectations.
The stock has also been weighed down by signs of weaker demand and turbulent trading conditions, especially around tariff-related headlines.
A major hit to FedEx’s freight business came after the Trump administration ended the “de minimis” exemption on duty-free imports — a move formalized through executive order on July 30.
The challenging environment prompted FedEx to cut its full-year forecast — the first such reduction in 13 years outside of the pandemic, according to JPMorgan.
Michael Ashley Schulman of Running Point Capital Advisors likened FedEx to “the economy’s Fitbit,” given its ability to foreshadow trends in business demand, e-commerce, and industrial production.
“Right now, all three are looking sluggish,” Schulman said.
FedEx portends broader weakness as trade war continues
With FedEx stock in free fall, global trade is already flashing warning signs.
Apollo data shows container shipments from China to the U.S. are plunging, and the firm warns it’s only a matter of time before the slowdown empties shelves and reverberates across the broader economy.
undefinedContainer ship departures from China to the US are collapsing ... When consumers cannot get the products that they want from abroad, and the products that are imported are more expensive because of tariffs, the outcome is a slowdown in US consumer spending.undefined
undefined Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) August 18, 2025
- Apollo Sløk pic.twitter.com/Ek7sHiBzfo
Meanwhile, Moody’s economist Mark Zandi reports that one-third of U.S. industries — including manufacturing, transportation, construction, and even the federal government — are already in recession. Another third are merely treading water.
“This underscores why recession is such a threat,” Zandi said.
1/3 of the economy's industries are in recession, 1/3 are treading water, and 1/3 are expanding. This underscores why recession is such a threat. The breakdown is in the table. I do take some license in defining industries (primarily in defining the tech industry), and this is my… pic.twitter.com/m39MNRezof
undefined Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) August 17, 2025
Zandi noted that the hardest-hit industries are those most exposed to tariffs. At the same time, Goldman Sachs reports that U.S. companies are absorbing 64% of Trump’s tariff costs, while foreign exporters bear only 14%. The remaining 22% are trickling down to the consumer.
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