Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) pulled back over the past week after one of its biggest rivals — Elon Musk’s Starlink — secured 5G spectrum licenses for mobile communications. However, analysts at Roth Capital argue the news isn’t a setback for ASTS - in fact, they say it highlights the market opportunity.
Roth reaffirmed its “Buy” rating on ASTS and set a 12-month price target of $56 a share, implying roughly 40% upside from current levels.
Starlink’s reported $17 billion acquisition of 5G spectrum from EchoStar “continues to validate the ASTS strategy and market opportunity,” Roth analysts wrote in a note.
They added: “The timeline to market should trail ASTS, given the lead times on satellite and smartphone upgrades. We also believe that a direct-to-consumer model would further enhance ASTS partnerships with both domestic and international carriers.”
This bullish outlook was echoed by Barclays, which said AST SpaceMobile’s core focus on the direct-to-cell vertical gives it a “quality advantage over other players,” including Starlink.
Starlink vs. AST SpaceMobile
Starlink, a subsidiary of SpaceX, and AST SpaceMobile are both building satellite-based broadband networks to extend connectivity to underserved populations.
ASTS is pursuing a direct-to-smartphone model through partnerships with carriers like AT&T and Vodafone, while Starlink primarily offers service through dedicated user terminals.
Despite the rivalry, analysts see enough demand for both to succeed. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) estimates that 2.6 billion people worldwide remained offline in 2024, including many in developing economies as well as rural communities in wealthier nations.
The global satellite internet market is currently valued between $7 billion and $15 billion, depending on methodology, and is expected to grow at a double-digit annual rate - potentially reaching $25–35 billion by the early 2030s, according to multiple industry forecasts.
ASTS: A stock punching above its weight
Despite Roth’s optimism — and AST SpaceMobile’s lofty $14.6 billion market cap — the company is still trading on future expectations rather than current fundamentals.
As of August, AST reported less than $5 million in trailing 12-month revenue, a figure that falls far short of justifying its valuation.
In the second quarter, AST generated only $1.16 million in revenue, missing analysts’ forecasts, according to Zacks Investment Research. Losses also deepened to $99.4 million, up 37% from a year earlier.
Even so, investors have clearly bought into the growth story: ASTS shares have surged 93% year-to-date, having reached new all-time highs in June and July.
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