British hedge fund Qube Research & Technologies made headlines this week after taking a bold short position against Trump’s media empire: a $105 million bet that the company’s valuation will fall as the president ramps up his trade war with China.
The short seems easy to justify. DJT is down 42% this year, Truth Social is struggling to grow users, and filings suggest Trump could eventually offload more than $2 billion worth of shares.
However, betting against Trump while he’s in the Oval Office ignores one important thing: his ability to move markets, and fast.
One post, one surge
On April 9, Trump posted on Truth Social that it was “a great time to buy” stocks. Just hours later, he announced a 90-day pause on tariffs, sending the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow soaring. DJT stock jumped more than 21% that day.
“The people who bought when they saw that post made a lot of money,” former White House ethics lawyer Richard Painter told ABC. But he also warned: “He’s loving this, this control over markets, but he better be careful,” referring to the risk of crossing insider trading laws.
For investors, DJT doesn’t trade on fundamentals. It trades on Trump. And that’s what makes shorting the stock dangerous.
A single post — or policy pivot — could spark another rally. With Trump back in power and his social media megaphone active, DJT’s fate remains tightly tied to his messaging.
Weak numbers, strong cash cushion
None of this means DJT is a good business. In 2024, Trump Media posted a staggering $400.9 million loss — up from $58.2 million in 2023. Revenue was just $3.6 million, which the company blamed on limited “nascent advertising” activity on Truth Social.
Still, Trump Media isn’t in danger of running out of cash anytime soon. At the end of 2024, the company reported $776.8 million in cash and just $9.6 million in debt.
That gives it enough runway to survive its growing pains — and enough volatility to keep short sellers on edge.
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