Costco (COST) wasn’t supposed to be the big retail winner of the past five years.
Between pandemic shutdowns, consumer belt-tightening, and rising labor costs, the sector was a minefield. Yet the warehouse giant has pulled off a historic run, one that has analysts asking: How much higher can it really go?
Costco has gained more than 200% over five years. That performance crushes Walmart (WMT) and Target (T) over the same stretch and leaves even the S&P 500 in the dust, according to market strategist Charlie Bilello.
"It was the best of times and worst of times for retailers," Bilello wrote, pointing to an era of lockdowns and store closures that derailed many peers. Costco, however, just kept compounding.
Total Returns over last 5 Years...
undefined Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 20, 2025
Costco $COST: +217%
Walmart $WMT: +149%
S&P 500 $SPY: +103%
Target $TGT: -27%
It was the best of times and worst of times for retailers. pic.twitter.com/vShWoiKOrA
The company’s strong long-term record shows why.
First-quarter revenues have compounded at a 10% annualized rate over the past three decades, Bilello highlighted earlier this year. In dollar terms, Q1 revenue went from just $4 billion in 1995 to $63 billion in 2025.
Costco 1st Quarter Revenues...
undefined Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) May 29, 2025
2025: $63 Billion
2020: $37 Billion
2015: $26 Billion
2010: $18 Billion
2005: $12 Billion
2000: $7 Billion
1995: $4 Billion
That's a 10% annualized growth rate over the last 30 years.$COST
Much of that growth comes from Costco’s membership-driven model. Annual fees provide a steady income stream and give the company the flexibility to maintain its value-first reputation on bulk groceries, electronics, and everyday goods.
In fact, Costco’s loyalty moat is deep. Renewal rates regularly sit in the 90% range, helping Costco weather downturns that tripped up competitors.
Momentum slows
After such a run, the risk is obvious: expectations may finally be baked in.
Costco stock peaked near $1,076 in February, retested those highs in June, and has since slipped about 12.5%, now trading in the mid-$940s. Year to date, the gain is just 3%, a slowdown from its turbocharged five-year climb.
The valuation is what has Wall Street on pins and needles. Costco’s price-to-earnings ratio is now at its most expensive level in 25 years, which is prompting fresh debate about whether future growth is already priced in.
Technically, repeated failures above the $1,000 mark have also raised eyebrows. Some traders see the setup as a multi-year consolidation, while others warn a bigger correction could be in the cards.
$COST Keeps rejecting this supply zone. ($1,000)
undefined BRITT 🏝 (@BullishBritt) September 2, 2025
Could see a dip back to $875 pic.twitter.com/xvyuHCbZBE
Meanwhile, Erste Group recently downgraded the stock from “Buy” to “Hold,” citing stretched multiples and a potential slowdown in revenue growth.
Loop Capital and Evercore ISI remain bullish, but even they’ve trimmed targets, pointing to resistance at the $1,000 level and the uncomfortable math of paying record multiples for a business already operating at record scale.
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