Investing in CrowdStrike (CRWD) has felt like catching a falling knife over the past two months. The cybersecurity giant issued a disappointing revenue outlook and continues to deal with the fallout from its July 2024 outage described as the largest IT disruption in history.
That combination has split the investor community, with some analysts sticking by the stock while traders rotate into newer names.
After rallying nearly 50% in the first half of the year, CrowdStrike shares have slipped 15% from their highs, falling below $435.
The pullback reflects concerns that the stock had reached full valuation, coupled with a weaker-than-expected second-quarter forecast and lingering reputational damage from last year’s outage caused by a defective software update.
However, analysts at Truist Securities argue that the tide is turning. They maintain a “Buy” rating and a $500 price target, citing accelerating annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth.
Much of that momentum is attributed to the company’s Flex licensing model, which allows customers to consolidate spending across multiple CrowdStrike modules under a single contract, increasing stickiness and expanding wallet share.
Truist believes CrowdStrike remains on track to hit $10 billion in ARR by 2031.
Chasing shinier names
With CrowdStrike’s rally stalling, social sentiment has shifted. Influencers and retail traders have piled into newer cybersecurity plays that are perceived to have a higher upside.
One recurring name is Rubrik Inc. (RBRK), a data security firm specializing in cloud backup, recovery, and data management.
Tech investor and Wolf Financial host Sam Badawi recently called Rubrik the “new guard of data and identity security,” likening its approach to CrowdStrike’s endpoint protection but with an “AI-native platform” spin.
Popular trader Za Stocks went further, dubbing Rubrik “a young CRWD.”
While Rubrik and CrowdStrike share some overlap in securing enterprise data, their core strengths diverge: Rubrik focuses on backup, recovery, and resilience, whereas CrowdStrike specializes in real-time detection, prevention, and cybersecurity operations.
Rubrik’s growth profile has also cooled. Subscription ARR rose 36% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026, but management guided for 29%–30% growth for the full year — signaling a deceleration as the company scales. That’s not alarming, but it does temper expectations of runaway growth relative to CrowdStrike.
Additionally, CrowdStrike operates in the endpoint security and threat detection space, a segment growing faster than backup and recovery as companies race to combat the surge in data breaches and ransomware.
Rubrik shares are up 19% year to date, giving the company a market capitalization of about $15 billion. Still, with a valuation just 14% of CrowdStrike’s, Rubrik has underperformed its larger peer this year.
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