Can Rigetti (RGTI) stock double again?
Shares of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) have been hammered over the past month, as one of Wall Street’s early quantum darlings ran into renewed skepticism around its commercialization timeline. Still, at least one analyst believes the downturn has gone too far.
Craig-Hallum analyst Richard Shannon recently doubled his price target on Rigetti to $40 from $20 while reiterating a Buy rating.
After its monthlong slide, the stock now trades near the bottom of Shannon’s previous target range, closing around $23 on Friday — a level that implies the stock could potentially double if his forecast plays out.
RGTI shares dropped 7.4% last week and are down a staggering 41% over the past month. Even so, the decline reflects a correction after a major run-up earlier this year that pushed the stock close to $60.
Despite the turbulence, Shannon pointed to a supportive long-term setup for quantum computing, increasing enterprise interest, and emerging opportunities to pair quantum capabilities with AI. These factors, he argued, could accelerate growth once the technology matures.
Rigetti recently delivered a mixed third-quarter report, with a narrower-than-expected adjusted loss but revenue that fell short of forecasts.
However, the company maintained a strong cash position, ending the period with roughly $600 million — liquidity that provides meaningful runway for its ongoing R&D efforts.
Betting on Rigetti’s roadmap
Rigetti’s outlook continues to hinge heavily on its technology roadmap, which Shannon highlights in his bullish case. The company reaffirmed that it’s on track to deliver a 100-qubit system by the end of this year and remains focused on achieving a 1,000-qubit system by the end of 2027.
These milestones are viewed as critical because higher qubit counts and improved quality bring quantum systems closer to “quantum advantage,” where they can outperform classical computers on useful commercial tasks.
Rigetti also announced a partnership with Nvidia aimed at supporting open platforms for integrating quantum processors with AI-focused supercomputers — an emerging area that could expand real-world applications for hybrid quantum-AI workloads.
Specifically, the two companies are working to link classical and quantum computers through ultra-fast, high-capacity connections designed to handle substantial data flow.
Commercial traction remains incremental but moving in the right direction. The company secured purchase orders for two 9-qubit Novera systems, which are expected to generate approximately $5.7 million in revenue during the first half of 2026.
One order came from an Asian technology manufacturer and the other from a California-based applied AI group, with both systems intended for research and development use, Rigetti said.