'Buying the dip': Analysts unfazed by Robinhood's earnings miss
Robinhood's (HOOD) stock fell as much as 9% in overnight trading on Tuesday after the company reported a fourth-quarter earnings miss, despite also posting a significant jump in its full-year revenue for 2025.
Robinhood reported earnings of $0.66 a share for Q4, below analyst expectations of $0.68 a share. The company's revenue came in at $1.28 billion, below the consensus estimate of $1.34 billion.
While the earnings miss put pressure on its stock, it's a testament to how aggressively Robinhood has pushed into the crypto sector that its stock was simultaneously trading down with other crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase Global (COIN) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) as part of the broader slump in the digital asset market.
The company reported $221 million in revenue from its crypto business for Q4, a 38% decline that was due largely to the steep drop in the price of bitcoin. The consensus estimate was for crypto revenue to fall 28% to $259 million.
Robinhood's stock dropped nearly 9% on Wednesday and has plunged more than 31% this year.
Although the company reported full year 2025 revenue of $4.5 billion, up more than 50% year over year, the downturn in the crypto markets appears to now be playing an outsized role in its stock performance.
Robinhood has multiple avenues for revenue
But despite the fourth-quarter earnings miss, Wall Street largely appears to be shrugging off the results and remains bullish on the company's long-term growth path.
In a client note on Wednesday, Piper Sandler analysts, led by Patrick Moley, acknowledged the near-term volatility, but "sees pullback as a long-term buying opportunity."
"We're Buying the Dip,' Moley said. 'All good in the neighborHOOD.'
He noted that if investors "can stomach the volatility, HOOD is the best way to play secular growth in retail trading and the closest FinTech platform we've ever seen to achieving 'super app' status."
In a note last spring, Varshika Prasanna, a research associate at ARK Invest, pointed to Robinhood as being part of a new wave of firms — including Coinbase, SoFi technologies (SOFI), and Block, Inc (XYZ) — that are collapsing once-siloed services like checking, credit, investing, and crypto into unified, software-native ecosystems.
Silicon Valley has long seen building a “super-app” as a holy grail, something that an American tech company has yet to fully pull off in a similar way to China’s WeChat – which people use as a one-stop shop for banking, messaging, social media, shopping, healthcare and many other services.
Moley said that while crypto trading has slowed "and many expect HOOD's fastest growing product in history - prediction markets - to see slower volumes now that football season has ended," his long-term thesis for further growth remains intact despite these short-term headwinds.
Compass Point analysts, led by Ed Engel, reiterated their Buy rating on Wednesday, but cut their price target for HOOD to $127 from $170 for what it termed a "near-term estimates reset" because of the earnings dip.
But Engel points to "2026 catalysts supporting the bull case," including prediction market internalization, Trump Accounts, and "mega-IPOs" planned for this year that should "keep investors positive on shares."
Meanwhile, Barclays analysts, led by Benjamin Budish, maintained their Overweight rating and despite the "near-term softness," Budish remains confident as Robinhood "continues to pursue an ambitious growth roadmap with a lot on the agenda for 2026."
However, he acknowledges that Robinhood's stock could suffer as the ongoing volatility weighs on it.
"The key near-term question in our view, remains how the current macro turbulence will impact retail engagement," Budish said.