Tesla (TSLA) remains one of the worst-performing Big Tech megacaps this year, and the company’s recent delivery numbers did little to boost investor confidence. However, a closer look at Tesla’s sales in key markets reveals a crucial point: the dream of owning a premium EV is far from dead.
Tesla’s Q2 delivery figures were a mixed bag. On Wednesday, the company reported it delivered 384,000 vehicles between March and June, marking a 14% drop from a year ago, but the decline wasn’t as steep as some had feared.
Adding to the silver linings, Tesla sales have rebounded in Spain and Norway, two important European EV markets. In Spain, Tesla sales surged 61% in June, driven by a 127% jump in Model Y purchases.
In Norway, Tesla sales climbed 54% year-over-year in June, helped by triple-digit registrations for the Model Y.
It’s worth noting that car sales and deliveries, while related, are not the same in the auto industry. Sales refer to the final purchase transaction, whereas deliveries reflect the physical handover of the vehicle to the buyer. However, in the case of Tesla, the terms are often used interchangeably.
Looking ahead, analysts believe Tesla could see a significant boost when it updates its aging lineup. As Reuters reports, the company hasn’t launched a new mainstream model in five years.
“A new model update is the classic extension strategy for a product that is used to inflate a product’s lifecycle, giving a short-term bounce,” said Matthias Schmidt, founder of Schmidt Automotive Research.
In February, Tesla announced plans to refresh the Model S and Model X this year, giving EV enthusiasts some modest but enticing upgrades, including subtle exterior changes, interior improvements, and slight range boosts.
Tesla’s refreshed Model Y, along with new seven-seat variants, is also expected to reach buyers throughout the year.
The next-generation “Juniper” Model Y is positioned as a major update, with deliveries already underway.
All eyes on Q2 earnings
While Tesla continues to attract plenty of attention from both bulls and bears, its upcoming quarterly earnings report in late July could offer clearer guidance on the stock’s short-term trajectory.
After badly missing estimates in the first quarter — due in part to rising competition and a consumer backlash against Elon Musk — some analysts now warn that second-quarter sales and revenue could come in even weaker.
This could snowball into a disappointing full year for Tesla, with FactSet’s consensus currently projecting a nearly 6% decline in 2025 sales compared to 2024. If that forecast holds, it would mark Tesla’s second consecutive year of declining sales.
To reverse the slump, Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein says Tesla needs more than just new models - it needs an affordable lineup.
“The current product lineup is at market saturation and Tesla will need the new affordable vehicle to grow deliveries,” he said.
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