Intuitive Machines (LUNR) stock has been in decline for most of the year due to a failed moon landing that put the company’s core landing technology into question.
But after a 45% year-to-date slide, some analysts are starting to see an opportunity to buy the dip.
“I’m not blind to the risks here,” wrote stock analyst Michael Wiggins De Oliveira in a note on LUNR.
“[Intuitive Machines] still burns cash and will probably need to dilute shareholders again. Plus, the failed IM-2 landing was a blow. It knocked confidence and sent the stock spiraling.”
But zooming out, he added, “I see a business trading at just 5x forward sales, with a debt-free balance sheet, over $350 million in cash, and an executive team that owns a big chunk of the stock.”
De Oliveira argues the company now looks fairly valued and well-capitalized, with management financially invested in its long-term success.
$LUNR
undefined Michael Wiggins De Oliveira (@MichaelWigginsO) June 12, 2025
I'm not blind to the risks here— $LUNR still burns cash and will probably need to dilute shareholders again. Plus, the failed IM-2 landing was a blow—it knocked confidence and sent the stock spiraling.
But when I zoom out, I see a business trading at just 5x forward… pic.twitter.com/xZFYF81c7S
While further dilution is likely as Intuitive Machines seeks fresh capital, the company’s robust pipeline of government contracts, including with NASA and the Texas Space Commission, offers a cushion for future growth.
Optimism around LUNR cratered in March after the company’s Athena lander tipped over shortly after touching down on the moon.
The mishap knocked out power and abruptly ended the mission, marking the company’s second failed attempt in two years.
In response, Intuitive Machines has emphasized lessons learned and is already focused on its next lunar mission, IM-3, currently slated for launch in 2026.
Q1 earnings snapshot
Despite its polarized reputation, Intuitive Machines reported solid top-line growth in Q1, with revenue up 14% sequentially to $62.5 million.
Gross profit jumped to $6.7 million, nearly tenfold from $700,000 in the previous quarter. However, the company still booked an operating loss of $10.1 million.
Among the highlights:
- Intuitive Machines completed two milestones under NASA’s Near Space Network Services program, earning $9 million
- Secured two additional funding tranches totaling $18 million for second-quarter deliverables
- Landed $10 million in state funding from the Texas Space Commission to advance microgravity research and an Earth reentry vehicle project
By the end of the quarter, the company’s cash position stood at $373.3 million. Management reaffirmed its full-year revenue outlook of $250 million to $300 million and is targeting positive adjusted earnings by 2026.
LUNR shares currently trade around $11, down 11% over the past week and nearly 45% year to date. The stock’s market cap now sits just below $2 billion.
Although that’s a steep fall for a company once hailed as a rising star in commercial spaceflight, Intuitive Machines hasn’t burned up on reentry just yet.
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