Satellite stocks soar on Goldman Sachs’ $108 billion industry forecast

The satellite market is expected to grow to $108 billion by 2035, up from the current $15 billion
By William Koblensky Varela
•
06 March 2025
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Satellite stocks surged Wednesday after Goldman Sachs predicted the global satellite industry could grow sevenfold by 2035.

“Our analysts’ base-case forecast is for the satellite market to grow to $108 billion by 2035, up from the current $15 billion,” Goldman wrote in a report released Wednesday.

The projection sent several satellite stocks higher:

  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) +18.14%
  • Redwire Corp (RDW) +12.87%
  • RocketLab (RKLB) +7.4%
  • Globalstar (GSAT) +7%
  • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) +4.75%

The rally comes after a broad market dip on Tuesday, which also weighed on satellite stocks.

Goldman’s bullish outlook hinges on the expansion of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, which play a growing role in global internet access, international shipping tracking, and travel monitoring.

A key driver of demand is internet connectivity—2.5 billion people still lack access, and LEO satellites could replace underwater cables, facilitating the eventual transition to 6G networks.

Despite the optimism, three-quarters of satellite launches over the next five years are expected to come from China, according to the Goldman report.

Is there ceiling on satellite growth?

The LEO boom isn’t limitless. Earth’s low orbit can only hold so many satellites before congestion becomes a major issue.

Goldman estimates 70,000 satellites could be launched in LEO over the next five years, though some researchers argue the limit is closer to 10,000.

Currently, 3,700 satellites operate in LEO, the majority owned by U.S. companies, with over half belonging to SpaceX, according to DEWEsoft, a data company.

Even if LEO reaches full capacity, demand won’t disappear. LEO satellites have a lifespan of just five years, meaning replacements will be needed even as new launches slow.

SpaceX is already replacing its aging Starlink fleet—120 of its satellites fell from orbit in January alone. But replacing them isn’t always smooth. After launching 21 satellites on Sunday, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket tipped over and was destroyed.

Private space companies are tide that lifts all boats

The satellite industry is unusual in that many major players aren’t publicly traded.

Some of the biggest names—SpaceX, Firefly, Relativity Space, and Capella Space—are all privately held, meaning their successes and failures have an outsized impact on their publicly-listed peers.

For example, SpaceX’s high-profile failures—often caught on video—have consistently dragged down space stocks. Conversely, its achievements, such as successfully landing a rocket, became a tide that lifted all boats.

The Procure Space ETF (UFO), which tracks publicly traded space companies, is up 4.32% this year, reflecting growing confidence in the sector.