From $13 to $20: Rivian stock price prediction for 2025
It has been a painful few years for Rivian stock (RIVN). Since the electric vehicle maker debuted on the Nasdaq stock exchange in November 2021, its shares have plunged by 83%.
From an IPO price of $78 to the current value of around $12.50, very few investors have made money holding RIVN stock.
Investors who refused to sell their RIVN bags were down another 43% in 2024—all while competitors Tesla (TSLA) and BYD (BYDDY) returned 100% and 76%, respectively.
In one sense, Rivian faces many of the same challenges as other EV makers. Supply disruptions, regulatory changes, and uneven demand for electric cars have made it difficult for EV producers to turn a profit.
These problems are magnified for Rivian because it has a much smaller manufacturing base than the Teslas and BYDs of the world. The company’s battery technology is innovative but expensive.
And when there are major component shortages, like those that inflicted its R1T pickup and R1S SUV, Rivian struggles to meet production targets.
These challenges have left Rivian struggling to make up market share against its major competitors. According to Cox Automotive, Rivian cars accounted for only 2.4% of U.S. EV sales in the fourth quarter of 2024.
On a quarterly basis, Rivian’s market share has reached 5% or more only two times since 2022.
While Rivian faces an uphill battle in a hotly contested EV market, all hope is not lost.
On Jan. 3, Rivian provided investors with a teaser of its fourth-quarter earnings report. Rivian said it completed 49,476 vehicles in 2024 and delivered 51,579 units during the final three months of the year.
Perhaps more importantly, these figures were in line with previous expectations and not lower, like many analysts had feared. Once investors got wind of the news, RIVN stock popped 24.5% for its biggest single-day rally ever.
The company told investors that its previous supply shortages are “no longer a constraint on Rivian’s production.” Investors can expect more comprehensive financial results on Feb. 20.
Rivian stock price predictions
In the meantime, analysts have varying opinions on where RIVN stock is headed this year.
After analyzing the short-term price targets of 25 experts, Zacks Investment Research determined an average price target of around $15 for RIVN stock. That’s nearly 20% upside from current levels.
Analysts at Benchmark are more optimistic, calling Rivian a “massive” buy opportunity as the U.S. EV market continues to grow. Benchmark gave RIVN stock a price target of $18, which is more than 40% higher than current levels.
On the other hand, analysts at Bank of America have taken a more cautious outlook on Rivian. Due to the company’s lack of profitability, BoA downgraded Rivian’s price target from $20 to $13. Objectively, this makes Rivian fairly priced at current levels.
While Rivian met delivery expectations in 2024, BoA doesn’t take this as a sign that demand is picking up.
“We also now expect only moderate growth in deliveries in 2025,” the BoA analysts wrote. “This is in part as the demand environment appears more challenging and as production will be limited by downtime RIVN is taking in 2H25.”
With Donald Trump at the helm in the White House, there’s no guarantee that EV shoppers will continue to receive lucrative incentives to transition to a green vehicle.
“[I]t could become more challenging for consumers to access IRA credits and there is potential for a disruption in regulatory credit pricing, which would put profitability further under pressure,” the analysts said.
Where Rivian outshines its competitors
Unlike many of its competitors, Rivian has carved out a reputation as a premium EV maker. Its 2025 R1T model has a base price of $71,700, while its R1S starts at around $77,000 and can surpass $90,000 fully loaded.
Rivian cars aren’t cheap, but its customers are clearly happy with what they paid for. According to Consumer Reports, 2024 marked the second year in a row that Rivian car owners had the highest satisfaction rating among all vehicle brands.
Rivian received a satisfaction score of 5/5, edging out BMW (4/5), Tesla (4/5), and Porsche (4/5). Nearly nine in 10 (86%) of Rivian owners said they would buy the same car again, versus 73% for BMW owners, 72% for Tesla drivers, and 71% for Porsche customers.
Rivian cars scored top marks for comfort, usability, and overall ownership costs, which include fuel, insurance, maintenance, and repairs.
In terms of driving experience, Rivian ranked fourth among auto brands behind Porsche, Tesla, and BMW.
Some analysts have attributed Rivian’s high customer satisfaction rankings to its much smaller customer and service volumes.
However, even if that’s the case, “Rivian certainly seems to be in a league of its own,” said Fred Lambert, the editor-in-chief of electric vehicle resource Electrek.
Rivian earnings expectations
Rivian’s latest financial statements painted a grim picture of the EV maker. On Nov. 7, the company reported an adjusted third-quarter loss of $0.99 per share on revenue of $874 million.
Both figures were much worse than what analysts had expected.
Rivian said it now expected to lose between $2.83 billion and $2.88 billion for fiscal 2024, worse than the $2.7 billion loss it previously forecast.
The Q4 delivery numbers from early January suggest that Rivian’s fortunes began to improve at the end of 2024. This makes its target of positive gross profit per vehicle more realistic.
The other major driver of profitability is Rivian’s ability to ramp up output and lower per-vehicle production costs. A new production facility in Georgia funded by a $6.6 billion loan from the Department of Energy could certainly help in that respect.
According to Rivian, the first phase of production is expected to begin in 2028, providing a capacity boost of 200,000 vehicles per year. By 2030, Rivian’s Georgia facility could help boost capacity by 400,000 vehicles per year.
While Rivian isn’t expected to introduce new vehicles to its lineup in 2025, the company is doubling down on autonomous driving and “hands-free” driver assistance systems.
CEO RJ Scaringe said innovations in autonomous driving would bring “an enormous amount of value to customers.”
Scaringe said Rivian plans to offer a full “eyes-off” system by 2026, which would literally enable drivers to do side tasks under certain circumstances. However, as Tech Radar reported, “eyes-off” driving faces heavy regulations in the United States and Europe.