The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) shocking revisions to employment growth aren’t the only red flag for the U.S. job market. Job postings on Indeed, the nation’s most-visited hiring site, are barely above pandemic levels, highlighting the economic strain facing the country.
According to FRED data, postings on Indeed fell 8% year-over-year in the week ending Sept. 12.
Even more troubling, they’ve declined for three consecutive years and now sit just 4.3% above February 2020 levels, right before Covid shutdowns gripped the nation.
“This suggests that official BLS job openings data will likely continue to trend lower,” The Kobeissi Letter warned, adding that unemployed Americans now outnumber available jobs for the first time in nearly four-and-a-half years.
The longer-term picture is even bleaker, especially for entry-level workers.
Separate data tracked by The Kobeissi Letter showed that a staggering 41% of companies plan to cut staff over the next five years as AI adoption accelerates, putting entry-level roles most at risk of being automated away.
This aligns with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s warning earlier this year that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and drive unemployment to 10% to 20% within the next five years.
A bad omen for the U.S. economy
Hiring intentions are among the earliest signals of business confidence. Persistent weakness in postings can foreshadow softer consumer spending, slower business activity, and weaker wage growth — all especially worrisome in today’s high-inflation environment.
This has reignited fears of stagflation, the toxic mix of rising unemployment, stubborn inflation, and sluggish growth. Veronika Dolar, an economics professor at the University of New York, Old Liberty Westbury, described stagflation as “the worst of all worlds.”
While the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates despite elevated inflation, critics like Peter Schiff argue that such moves could backfire, accelerating stagflation by fueling both recessionary forces and higher prices.
The contrarian economist argues that the only real solution is significantly higher interest rates — a stance at odds with the Fed’s current approach. “I understand that’s going to be very painful, given the economy that we’ve created, built on a foundation of cheap money,” he said.
Others are less dire but still cautious. Brown University economist Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan warns that tariffs could act as a slow-moving stagflationary trigger, as companies delay passing higher costs to consumers. If demand rebounds after rate cuts, she cautions, “we are going to see inflation.”
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