JPMorgan's "base case": Bitcoin outperforms stocks, bonds, and gold over the next decade

2026 has been a difficult year for Bitcoin, but JPMorgan analysts expect the cryptocurrency to outperform traditional assets over the next decade.

Bitcoin could more than double by 2036

In its latest long-term capital market assumptions, JPMorgan projects Bitcoin will deliver annualized returns of 10% over the next decade, higher than U.S. REITs, U.S. stocks, bonds, gold, and cash.

At Bitcoin's current price of around $80,000, a 10% compound annual return would put it above $207,000 by 2036.

For comparison, JPMorgan expects annualized returns of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 5.6% for bonds, and 5.5% for gold.

Bitcoin ETFs are changing the ownership picture

Before U.S. spot ETFs were approved, individual investors were the biggest Bitcoin buyers. But that's changed because Institutional investors now have easier access to Bitcoin through regulated investment products.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated nearly 1.3 million BTC since launching in early 2024, accounting for more than 6.1% of the total supply, according to BitBo data.

At current prices, those holdings are worth more than $104 billion.

One caveat is that JPMorgan's 10% return forecast assumes annual Bitcoin volatility of 55%, meaning investors should expect quite a roller coaster along the way.

The real test is whether institutional investors will tolerate those swings for a projected return just 2.5 percentage points above U.S. stocks.

📌 Bottom line: After a year or so of radio silence, Wall Street is once again warming up to Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier relative to traditional assets and gold.