If this happens, gold price could hit $3,300 this year, analyst says
If U.S. retail investors start buying gold, the commodity could skyrocket from its record high, according to Chris Mancini, portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund (GOLDX).
Mancini believes gold could hit $3,300 per ounce this year from its current $2,800 with the support of individual investors.
“The real swing factor is whether or not Americans start to buy,” Mancini said, admitting he’s waiting for others to join the rush before he buys in.
Gold has surged 39% over the past year, largely driven by central banks trying to insulate themselves from geopolitical uncertainty. But traders haven’t piled in yet.
A Bank of America study found that 71% of U.S. financial advisors have almost no gold exposure—an oversight given that gold’s value began outpacing the S&P 500 as of February 2.
Institutional investors have long relied on gold as a safe-haven asset during political instability. Tariff threats, wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and inflation have all pushed the metal to record highs.
Analysts agree central banks will continue supporting gold’s price as long as international disputes persist. UBS strategist Joni Teves wrote in a report titled “The Highs Are Yet to Come” that all-time highs don’t mean a pullback is imminent.
Meanwhile, HSBC’s chief precious metals analyst James Steel said gold is overvalued but still likely to rise. “We look for the market to stay elevated and for central banks and others to buy should there be a correction,” he said.
Citi Bank predicted in early February that gold would reach $3,000 in three months before retreating to $2,800 by year-end.
“The gold bull market looks set to continue under Trump 2.0 with trade wars and geopolitical tensions reinforcing the reserve diversification/de-dollarization trend,” Citi noted. That means even if some investors pull out, central banks are likely to keep demand strong.
Geopolitical drivers
There’s little sign of easing international tensions that could trigger a gold pullback. Central banks are betting a global slowdown could occur if conflict disrupts trade.
On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump had a public shouting match with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over ceasefire terms with Russia. Trump then told Zelensky to leave the White House, dashing hopes for a peaceful resolution to the ongoing war.
Adding to trade fears, the U.S. plans to double its 10% tariff on China starting March 4, while imposing a 25% import tax on goods from Canada, Mexico, and the EU.
If geopolitics remain volatile, gold’s safe-haven status will likely keep demand high.
How individual investors can buy gold
There are several ways to gain exposure to gold’s bull run, each with pros and cons.
The most common are gold-backed ETFs, which account for about a third of total gold investment. ETFs typically track gold prices and trade like stocks, making them a convenient option.
Off the stock market, gold savings plans and gold certificates allow investors to buy gold without physically storing it.
Physical gold—bars and coins—comes with added costs, including premiums over the gold price, storage, and insurance. Gold savings plans and certificates, on the other hand, let buyers store their holdings at a bank without those extra burdens.