For generations, the term “moonshot project” referred to ambitious projects as a reference to the Apollo 11 lunar landing. Nearly six decades later, the phrase is taking on a more literal meaning — and bolstering an emerging market sector.
Firefly Aerospace successfully landed its Blue Ghost craft on the moon’s surface this week, making it just the second private firm to achieve the feat and the first to do so with a fully upright touchdown.
Even though Firefly isn’t a publicly traded company, this successful landing could have a ripple effect across Wall Street, sending other space stocks, such as Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Rocket Lab (RKLB), and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), higher.
Although all free dropped on Monday (LUNR was down 7.8%, RKLB 8.9%, and ASTS 5.5%) as part of the broader market sell-off, space stocks are set for a strong 2025, analysts say.
“It’s not just the headlines,” said Deutsche analyst Edison Yu more than a month before Sunday’s milestone. “When you talk to any [venture capital] investor, any institutional investor, any family office … it just seems like everybody has kind of gotten much more interested and excited [about] space.”
ProcureAM had a similarly positive outlook, noting that “the space sector seems poised for success in 2025,” though it advised investors that there are a lot of unknowns to consider — particularly among companies dependent on government contracts.
So, how does Blue Ghost factor into the bigger picture?
Four fundamental factors
In its January report, ProcureAM listed a quartet of factors expected to benefit the sector’s growth:
With Firefly Aerospace chalking up a big win this week, there is added pressure on other private and public entities to step up their efforts.
In countless other industries, increased competition has driven down costs, attracted new investments, sparked innovation, and attracted government interest, i.e., all of the items on ProcureAM’s list.
There’s also a political wild card, since President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead NASA hasn’t yet appeared on Capitol Hill for a confirmation hearing. But as Yu explained:
“After Jared Isaacman got picked as the next NASA administrator, that was very well received by the institutional community. If you talk to investors who follow space very closely, if you talk to people who are running the companies, that was seen as very positive.”
Short-term or sustainable?
Several space-related stocks saw premarket bumps on Monday in response to the Blue Ghost landing, but most of those evaporated by the end of the trading day.
Does that mean what seemed like a shot of adrenaline from Firefly was actually a dud? It’s far too early to say, of course. But any single mission, no matter how well executed, shouldn’t be seen as an indicator of an entire sector.
Instead, Blue Ghost might prove to be just one of many strides in a 21st century space race. Evidence of that possibility can be found in a string of other missions on its heels.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR), which achieved the first private-sector moon landing, expects its second lander to touch down later this week. It closed 7.8% lower on Monday.
Other potential industry drivers include NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, which seeks to partner with private-sector companies for future lunar missions and Trump’s newfound desire to go to Mars.
With so much attention on space exploration, it appears that for this niche yet rapidly expanding industry, the sky is figuratively—but not literally—the limit.
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are markedmarked