After weeks of falling container volumes from China to the U.S., shipments started to rebound in early May, just in time to avoid a Covid-like product shortage on store shelves.
Shipping data from the Port of Los Angeles — the main entry point for goods from China — showed a noticeable uptick in activity, following a drop in the final weeks of April.
Bloomberg chief U.S. economist Anna Wong linked the rebound to urgent lobbying efforts by major retailers including Walmart, Target, and Home Depot.
According to Wong, the three retail giants met with White House officials on April 24 to warn that continued trade restrictions could leave U.S. stores with empty shelves heading into the summer.
The meeting was described as “productive,” and shipping orders from China resumed just days later.
“That coincides with the timing of the turnaround in shipping data,” Wong noted. She added that based on the pace of recovery, “there appears to be a good chance tariffs on China could be cut before May 20.”
Just two days after Wong’s forecast, the Trump administration announced a 90-day trade deal with China that rolled back the steepest reciprocal tariffs.
The timing suggests the White House may have realized that an extended standoff could hurt both politically and economically, especially with voters watching how inflation and availability of goods are being handled.
Retail stocks stage a partial comeback
Retailers were hoping Trump’s return to the White House would mean a boost to business. Instead, they got a trade war that slammed consumer sentiment and triggered a pullback in discretionary spending.
From January to early April, the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector fell more than 22%. These stocks have since rebounded to a 10% loss for the year, but the recovery hasn’t been even.
Walmart (WMT) has fully rebounded and is now in positive territory for the year. The retailer’s strong e-commerce growth and paid membership programs helped offset tariff jitters, according to its Q4 earnings report.
Target (TGT) has also bounced off recent lows but remains down for 2025. In March, the company reported a major drop in Q1 earnings, pointing to weaker consumer demand and tighter margins.
The Home Depot (HD) is having the toughest time of all big box retailers.
Its stock is still down nearly 29% this year as the company battles not just tariff fallout but a broader slowdown in housing and home improvement spending.
With retail shelves stocked for now and the 90-day trade truce, Big Retail may have bought the U.S. some breathing room.
But for investors and shoppers alike, the risk of future shocks hasn’t gone away.
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