President Trump promised a golden age of American prosperity powered by tariffs, projecting trillions in new revenue. But so far, the numbers are falling dramatically short.
According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the U.S. is collecting just over $500 million per day from the tariffs, far below the $2 billion per day Trump had projected.
At that pace, annual revenue would total roughly $12 billion — a fraction of the $1 trillion Trump claimed the tariffs would generate. For perspective, it amounts to just 0.01% of the federal government’s net interest payments for the year.
In a recent X post, analyst Arnaud Bertrand called it “probably one of the biggest economic blunders in history.”
“Literal trillions in wealth destroyed, interest on the debt increased, the dollar weakened, businesses wiped out all over the world, literally every single country in the world antagonized... all for raising a yearly amount of taxes that can fund the U.S. military budget for just 4 days,” he wrote.
Despite Trump’s insistence that countries are eager to strike trade deals, results so far suggest otherwise. Progress has been slow and nowhere near the "90 deals in 90 days" the administration once promised.
No deal from Japan or Mexico
Global markets dropped to start the week after reports that a U.S. trade deal with Japan remains elusive, contradicting earlier claims from Fox News that an agreement was imminent.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Tokyo remains deeply concerned about the unpredictability of Trump’s policies — especially the proposed 24% tariff on Japanese auto exports.
Trump effectively canceled the 2019 U.S.-Japan trade agreement after imposing the new duties. Japanese trade negotiators are expected in Washington later this week to restart talks.
In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed that recent negotiations with the U.S. failed to yield a breakthrough.
“We haven’t yet reached an agreement, but there is ongoing communication between our commerce and economy ministers, as well as between our presidents,” Sheinbaum said.
Although Trump announced a 90-day delay on certain tariffs, the pause does not apply to auto parts, which remain scheduled for new duties starting May 3.
In 2024, the value of auto trade between the U.S. and Mexico totaled $225 billion, with Mexico maintaining a significant surplus.
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