As Intuitive Machines (LUNR) heads to the moon again, will its stock skyrocket too?

Houston-based startup Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is a small-cap stock that is not for the faint of heart, which seems befitting for a space exploration company that is in the business of traveling to the moon.

As the company sends its second lunar lander to the moon this week, the expectation is for the company’s stock to hit some volatility the same way it did during its first trip to the moon.

This lunar lander, called Athena, launched atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on Wednesday night and is expected to reach the moon in about eight days.

The trip is being financed by NASA as part of its Commercial Lunar Payload Services and will deliver three NASA payloads on the moon’s surface to measure the presence of volatile substances or gases in the lunar soil.

But what does any of this mean for LUNR shares? If the past is prologue, investors tend to act a little weird during these missions.

When Intuitive Machines launched its first lunar lander Odysseus to the moon in February 2024 aboard a SpaceX rocket, LUNR shares soared 34.5% and then gained another 64% over the next two days of the mission, as Barron’s reports.

This sent LUNR shares from about $5 to roughly $11. There was then a selloff as the week-long trip continued, but shares jumped 16% to $10 when Odysseus landed on the moon. However, after landing on the moon, Odysseus tipped over on its side and LUNR shares plummeted 35%.

However, after NASA declared the mission a success despite Odysseus tipping over, shares soared another 145%. Again, LUNR is not for the faint of heart.

But given that this is the second mission, it seems likely there will be a little less volatility since investors now know what to expect, even if Athena tips over like its predecessor.

Intuitive Machines is expected to become profitable next year

The 12-year old company is not expected to be profitable in 2025 but Wall Street analysts expect that to change next year, projecting profits and free cash flow, according to Barron’s, citing data from FactSet.

Intuitive Machines’ sales are projected to hit around $460 million in 2026, up from the $350 million forecasted for this year.

And the company appears to be in a strong position long-term, as the contract it signed with NASA in September 2024 could be worth up to $4.82 billion.

“We see the win today as a significant catalyst and validation towards LUNR’s outlook and the company’s ability to continue to win contracts,” Cantor analyst Andres Sheppard wrote in a note after the contract was announced. “More importantly, LUNR was the only awardee of this contract.”

President Trump has also shown a keen interest in space travel – and with SpaceX founder Elon Musk as one of his key advisors, Intuitive Machines could see even more room for expansion.

This was not lost on analysts when the company reported its 3Q earnings in November.

“We believe the backlog momentum is still very much with [Intuitive Machines], execution continues on the three pillars (delivery, data transmission and infrastructure) and its commercial