America’s two economies: The freight market crashes as Wall Street soars
As pundits debate the health of the U.S. economy, one thing is clear: it’s experiencing a “goods recession,” reflected in ongoing turbulence across the freight market - a key indicator of demand for manufactured products and consumer goods.
That’s one of the main takeaways from a recent analysis by Craig Fuller, founder and CEO of FreightWaves, a logistics and supply chain data firm. Fuller reported that freight data continues to signal weakness in the goods-producing side of the economy.
The economy is in a goods recession, at least thats what the freight data suggest.
undefined Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) November 1, 2025
This is the freight market since 2018.
By tracking truck driver employment (yellow) vs. freight demand (blue), we can see the balance between supply and demand.
It is clear that the goods… pic.twitter.com/2k9Mm55vzZ
In a chart comparing the Outbound Tender Volume Index — a benchmark for truckload freight demand — with truck driver employment levels, Fuller illustrated the balance between freight supply and demand from 2018 through 2025.
He described the 2019 through early Covid era as a “bloodbath” for the freight industry, followed by a pandemic-fueled boom that ultimately gave way to a prolonged “Great Freight Recession” between 2022 and 2023.
After a brief rebound in late 2024, freight volumes have started to plunge again. This is a clear sign that “the goods economy hit the skids in 2025, killing the freight market recovery that began in 2H 2024,” Fuller wrote.
“It is clear that the goods economy hit the skids in 2025, killing the freight market recovery that began in 2H 2024,” he added.
A Jekyll and Hyde economy
Although the U.S. economy has so far staved off a broad recession, expanding at a brisk 3.8% annual rate in the second quarter and showing signs of continued growth in the third, that strength hasn’t been evenly distributed.
On one hand, the services sector and stock market remain resilient, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and AI-driven profitability. On the other hand, a deepening freight downturn suggests that the industrial side of the economy is already losing steam.
The split isn’t just sectoral but also geographic. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told Fortune that roughly half of U.S. states are effectively in recession. According to Moody’s data, 22 states are in the red, 16 are experiencing growth, and 13 are hovering somewhere in between.
Some of the states currently in recession include New York, Massachusetts, and Illinois, while California and Nevada are classified as “treading water,” according to Moody’s data. Meanwhile, states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona are growing.
Zandi added that the divide is also economic, noting that most households outside the top 20% of income earners “don’t feel very good about the economy.” In this environment, he warned, “the margin for error on employment is minute.”