82% of the country is already in 'recession,' Fed data shows
As pundits and economists continue to debate the state of the U.S. economy, it’s becoming increasingly clear that many Americans are already feeling the effects of a downturn, even by the Federal Reserve’s own data.
A recent analysis of the Fed’s Beige Book found that 82% of the U.S. population now lives in regions showing signs of recession. That’s the largest share since 2020.
The figure has doubled since the start of the year, with only 2008 and 2020 seeing comparable levels over the past two decades, according to The Kobeissi Letter, a financial commentary publication.
Shocking stat of the day:
undefined The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 30, 2025
Currently, ~82% of the US population lives in regions experiencing an economic recession, the highest share since 2020.
The analysis uses the Fed Beige Book, a report published 8 times a year based on anecdotal information gathered from businesses,… pic.twitter.com/MaYtFkDtSJ
Yet official measures paint a very different picture. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, a real-time estimate of economic growth, currently projects real GDP to expand by 3.9% in the third quarter, which is a pace that hardly signals recession.
Political economist Ben Norton explained that the apparent contradiction is easy to understand once the deep divide between the “haves” and “have-nots” in the U.S. economy is recognized.
The U.S. economy appears to be growing in aggregate “because of the huge AI/stock market bubble and spending by the richest 10%,” Norton wrote. “There’s one economy for the rich and another for everyone else.”
The AI wealth effect
Whether or not the stock market is truly in a bubble remains up for debate, but the wave of artificial intelligence investments since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 has been immense.
The AI boom has driven record stock market gains, and with them, growing concentration risks, as much of the market’s growth has become tied to a single narrative.
As InvestorsObserver recently reported, the S&P 500 includes only 41 AI-related stocks, yet they now account for a record 47% of the index’s total weight.
While many Americans have indirectly benefited from this rally through 401(k)s and retirement accounts, lower-income households have far less exposure to the stock market and therefore little participation in the AI-driven wealth surge.
According to Federal Reserve data, stock ownership in the United States has never been more concentrated. As of 2023, the wealthiest 10% of households control approximately 93% of all U.S. stocks, a record high that highlights how market gains disproportionately benefit the affluent.
By contrast, the bottom 50% of households own just 1% of all stocks, leaving half the country with virtually no stake in the stock market’s historic rally.
This growing divide underscores how rising asset prices have primarily benefited those already at the top, thereby widening the gap between financial markets and the broader economy.