Good morning, everyone!
We’re less than a week away from April, and it’s easy to get sidetracked by the chaos that has dominated markets during the first quarter. But the more context we have around these volatile trends, the less likely we are to be driven by fear. So let’s head into the next quarter — and beyond — with facts on our side, starting with today’s key market developments.
Today’s top 5 market movers
- A few economic indicators are due today, including the February report on durable goods orders and earnings from companies like Dollar Tree (DLTR), Cintas (CTAS), and Chewy (CHWY). But the bigger market movers may arrive later in the week, with fresh data on employment, GDP, and inflation — not to mention remarks from top central bankers that could shed light on the Fed’s interest rate path.
- The broader retail sector continues to face pressure as consumers tighten their belts. Following the Conference Board’s release of the lowest consumer confidence index in years, senior U.S. economist Yelena Shulyatyeva cited persistent concerns over tariffs and inflation, concluding: “All this uncertainty around [the] economic outlook is really starting to weigh on consumer’s assessment of how they will fare going forward.”
- After pulling back from last month’s highs, oil futures have started climbing again. Monday marked the fifth consecutive daily gain, triggered by President Trump’s social media post threatening new tariffs on countries that import oil from Venezuela. Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov called it: “A textbook example of using tariffs for geopolitical pressure, rather than economics.”
- KB Home just flashed another warning signal for the already strained residential construction sector. The company missed expectations on both profits and revenue, sending its stock down 4.6%. Combined with a recent slowdown in new home sales and growing anxiety over Trump’s trade agenda, homebuilders aren’t counting on relief anytime soon.
- Gold isn’t the only metal chasing records this year. Copper came close on Monday, with futures topping $10,000 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange and continuing to climb. Anticipation around tariffs has boosted demand for the metal, sparking a surge in activity on COMEX.
Recession fears loom large despite Wall Street’s three-day win streak
Central bankers could soon offer a fuller economic picture
Markets ended Tuesday on a high note, locking in a third consecutive gain for the major indexes. The modest rally extended a broader rebound that began earlier in the week — but beneath the surface, deeper concerns continue to grow.
And the survey says...
While not always the best predictor of actual economic outcomes, sentiment surveys often reflect the shifting mood of investors — and the latest consumer confidence index paints a bleak picture.
A few key takeaways from the Conference Board’s latest report:
- The fourth consecutive monthly decline in the index
- A 7.2-point drop to 92.9 — the lowest since 2021
- The weakest March reading in over a decade
Any one of these would be enough to raise recession fears. Together, they paint a more troubling picture — and the Conference Board’s expectations index added to the concerns.
- That index, which gauges short-term labor market sentiment, fell to 65.2 — the lowest in 12 years and nearly 15 points below the level often viewed as a recession warning.
- Two-thirds of respondents said a U.S. recession is either “likely” or “somewhat likely” within the next 12 months.
- In open-ended responses, consumers cited inflation, tariffs, and trade policy as top concerns — with a noticeable uptick in mentions of economic and policy uncertainty.
Knowledge is power
No one can predict the future with certainty, but the consumer confidence index clearly reflects a growing unease among everyday investors. These perceptions are fluid — and the Federal Reserve’s response may help shape what comes next.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell tried to calm nerves recently, noting that while growth “may be moderating a bit,” the economy is still moving “at a solid pace.”
It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement — but it may be just enough to reassure skittish investors for now.
Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has lowered his forecast for rate cuts in 2025, trimming it from two to just one in response to persistent market uncertainty.
One of Powell’s more notable points: context matters.
“If you go back two months, people were saying that the likelihood of a recession was extremely low,” he said. “So, [it] has moved up, but it’s not high.”
Does Trump have the Midas touch — or are investors chasing fool’s gold?
DJT appears to be on the upswing after a rocky start to 2025
From his lavish décor to his famously coiffed hair, President Donald Trump has long been associated with gold. And with shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) trending higher, some investors are wondering if he’s struck gold again — this time through a new crypto-related ETF venture.
But the stock has already seen its fair share of volatility, and cryptocurrency is hardly known for its stability.
“A loyal following”
DJT shares started gaining ground late Monday after news broke of a partnership between the company and Crypto.com to launch a slate of ETFs through a subsidiary fintech platform called Truth.Fi.
Trump used the opportunity to promote the product’s “Made in America” focus, while Crypto.com’s CEO emphasized that the deal provides access to a “brand with a loyal following.”
The news sent DJT shares up about 9% in pre-market trading Tuesday. The stock ended the day near that level after some intraday swings.
This week’s rally marks a turnaround for DJT, which was down nearly 40% for the year as of Monday’s close. Of course, this isn’t the first time the stock has surged — it previously spiked after Trump’s Election Day victory before sliding again as his second term began.
A familiar strategy
The Crypto.com agreement mirrors other licensing deals Trump has made over the years across various industries. But in this case, the speculative nature of crypto ETFs — combined with his role as a sitting president — adds new layers of complexity to what might otherwise be a standard business arrangement.
Roughly a month ago, U.S. Rep. Sam Liccardo (D-CA) introduced legislation that would ban cryptocurrencies issued or sponsored by the president, members of Congress, and other elected officials.
As Trump’s divisive trade policies continue to shape the broader economic environment, it’s still unclear whether the power of his brand alone will be enough to carry his media company’s latest initiative.
Gary Cohn: ‘Ambiguity’ is suppressing markets — but stability could be coming
A lot depends on the actions of his former boss
President Donald Trump is back in the White House with a bold economic agenda and a new team of advisers. But Gary Cohn — who helped shape Trump’s first-term economic policy — hasn’t stopped offering his take on the volatility rattling markets.
“The number one enemy”
It doesn’t take a degree in economics to recognize that uncertainty across multiple fronts has fueled recent turmoil on Wall Street. But Cohn took it a step further in a recent interview, laying out the case for why: “Ambiguity is the number one enemy of a market.”
The former National Economic Council director explained that companies can trigger investor anxiety by creating uncertainty in:
- Their earnings profile
- Their growth outlook
- Their overall business model
But right now, Cohn said, the ambiguity exerting the biggest influence over markets originates in Washington.
“When politicians and legislators create ambiguity in the way taxes will work, how capital gains will be treated, how tariffs will be imposed — they create ambiguity in the market. And the market as a whole reprices.”
The effects of that uncertainty are already visible — most notably in the recent drop in consumer confidence, which declined for the fourth straight month.
Conference Board senior economist Stephanie Guichard weighed in on the trend:
“Likely in response to recent market volatility, consumers turned negative about the stock market for the first time since the end of 2023.”
Desperately seeking stability
If ambiguity is the market’s greatest threat, then predictability may be its most valuable asset — and Cohn believes stability could be on the horizon.
Still, he acknowledged that much depends on how Trump’s second-term policy agenda takes shape.
“We could end up in a position where the administration settles down on what they want to do with tariffs,” he said. “They get tax policy through Congress. They get the budget through Congress. We understand what we’re doing from a financial standpoint. We understand what they need tariffs for. And they settle on a methodology — and we get into a very stable position.”
Not everyone shares that optimism.
With “Liberation Day” — Trump’s self-declared deadline for a new round of tariffs — now just a week away, many investors are bracing for impact. And according to Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius, expectations may be out of step with reality.
Citing a recent survey, Hatzius noted:
“Market participants who believe reciprocal tariffs are likely expect a nine percentage point reciprocal tariff rate on average.”
But he added that the actual proposal could be “closer to double what market participants expect.”
For now, markets remain in a holding pattern — but continue to react quickly to any signals out of the White House. Earlier this week, stocks rebounded after Trump suggested he “may give lots of countries breaks” on tariffs.
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