5 things to watch before market opens today

Good morning, everyone! Investors appeared to take a cautious pause before markets opened yesterday, but early-week stability quickly gave way to broad losses throughout the day. It marked yet another abrupt shift in a volatile market, with analysts hoping today's slate of economic reports might offer some clarity. For now, let’s check out Thursday’s pre-market trends.

Today’s top 5 market movers

• Markets are reacting to a midweek bump in oil prices, fueling fresh inflation worries and higher costs at the pump. The uptick stems from multiple factors, including a drop in domestic crude inventory and President Trump’s threats of tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan oil. StoneX analyst Alex Hodes predicted, “Both China and India will likely turn to buy more Russian sanctioned crude oil instead of more closely monitored and riskier Venezuelan crude.”
• The third revision of Q4 2024 GDP numbers will be released this morning. While such revisions rarely significantly shift overall economic sentiment, any unexpected move could spur volatility in an already unstable market.
• Trump’s trade talk vacillations continue to take a toll on stock prices. After yesterday afternoon's announcement regarding new tariffs on imported vehicles, auto stocks are in freefall. Tesla, already embattled by ongoing protests against CEO Elon Musk, dropped another 5% by market close Wednesday.
• Meanwhile, inflation fears persist after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated there’s "more work to do" to achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, cautioning against rushing interest rate cuts. Kashkari also noted fears surrounding Trump's unpredictable trade policies could suppress consumer sentiment more than tariffs themselves. He added, however, that a theoretical resolution to those “trade uncertainties” could deliver a boost in confidence.
• As the retail sector struggles, one chain is bucking the trend. Dollar Tree (DLTR) stock jumped on news that it will sell Family Dollar, the retail chain it purchased a decade ago. Although the stock gained 8%, the $1 billion deal still represents a steep loss compared to the $9 billion paid for Family Dollar in 2015.

Quote of the day

“Last Friday, [President Trump] said tariffs might not be as broad and then he says he might add copper and autos. Now we’re right back into defensive mode.” - CFRA Research Chief Investment Officer Sam Stovall

Mortgage rates tick higher again, stirring fresh concerns about the housing market

The housing market was already under pressure before mortgage rates began creeping back up. While the average 30-year fixed rate dipped slightly on Wednesday, it's been hovering near 7% since earlier in the week.

That level hasn’t been touched since more than a month ago — when rates were falling from a 2025 high of 7.3% in January. Still, recent refinance rates remain well above the September low of 6.01%.

Adding fuel to the fire

For homebuilders and would-be buyers alike, the drumbeat of discouraging news continues:

• Median home prices hit a record $398,400 last month
• Tariffs are pushing up the cost of building materials
• Housing supply remains historically tight

The National Association of Home Builders warned in its latest advisory that new tariffs alone could tack on $9,200 to the price of a new home.

At the same time, homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates have little reason to list — keeping inventory low and competition high.

It’s one reason analysts like Pantheon Macroeconomics chief U.S. economist Samuel Tombs think the market could stay sluggish through the end of the year.

He believes transactions “will recover meaningfully only when new mortgage rates get much closer to the average rate of the stock, currently just above 4%.”

What’s next?

There’s little sign that kind of relief is coming anytime soon, especially given recent Fed signals.

Joel Kan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, echoed that sentiment after the group’s latest report. “Markets remained focused on potential trade-policy changes,” he said, pointing to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s message that central bankers are in no rush to cut rates.

“The Fed’s wait-and-see approach to resuming its easing cycle suggests housing market activity will remain very subdued throughout 2025,” Tombs concluded.

It’s not the forecast home shoppers were hoping for — but knowing what’s driving the market could help buyers make smarter moves in a tough environment.

Silicon Valley heavyweights aim to bounce back after Wednesday’s slump

Yesterday was a rough day across the board for investors, with all three major indexes ending in the red by Wednesday’s close. Stocks had held up earlier in the week, despite ongoing pressure from trade uncertainty and inflation concerns.

Here’s how the day ended:

• The S&P 500 fell more than 1%
• The Dow lost 132 points, or 0.3%
• The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted the steepest loss of 2%

Zooming in on the Nasdaq’s drop reveals a few standout drivers.

Magnificent malaise

The massive gains that have powered the market in recent years have largely come from Big Tech — especially the so-called “Magnificent 7.”

But this time, that same group helped drag the market down.

Tesla, which had strung together several days of gains despite growing anti-Musk sentiment, tumbled more than 5% on Wednesday.

Nvidia (NVDA), a longtime AI standout and another Magnificent 7 name, also dropped more than 5%. Other AI-linked players took a hit too — Vistra (VST) slid 6%, and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) sank nearly 9%.

It didn’t stop there. Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) all ended lower on the day. Altogether, the group shed about 3% of its total market value.

Investors on edge

There are no guarantees on Wall Street, and the volatility swirling around artificial intelligence is proving that in real time. The long-term outlook may still be bright, but near-term turbulence is making itself felt.

Several catalysts fed into Wednesday’s tech retreat:

• Nvidia’s sell-off followed new environmental rules in China, which could stall the company’s expansion plans there.
• Tesla’s rally was derailed by fresh tariff talk from former President Trump targeting the auto industry.
• Microsoft slipped after canceling plans for a major international data center rollout, citing weak demand forecasts.

Still, some analysts saw glimmers of opportunity. TD Cowen pointed out that Google may pick up the slack in international markets where Microsoft pulled back. And in the U.S., Meta is reportedly stepping in to backfill data center capacity.

Today’s reports and tomorrow’s inflation data might provide much-needed clarity

Markets have been stuck in a holding pattern, with persistent ambiguity weighing on growth for months.

As any analyst will tell you, uncertainty is often worse than bad news. And while some key questions — like the long-term impact of Trump-era tariffs — remain unresolved, investors will get a clearer read on several fronts before the week wraps up.

A busy Thursday ahead

Markets move on data, and today’s calendar is packed. Alongside a revision to GDP numbers, investors will be watching:

• Weekly initial jobless claims
• Retail and wholesale inventory data
• Last month’s advance U.S. trade balance
• February pending home sales

On top of that, markets will also parse remarks from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and earnings from names like Lululemon (LULU) and TD Synnex (SNX).

All eyes on inflation

Friday brings arguably the most important release of the week: the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The timing couldn’t be more critical.

Although price growth cooled slightly in January, Fed officials expect inflation to pick up modestly as the year goes on.

Friday’s numbers arrive on the heels of a Conference Board survey showing consumer confidence just hit a 12-year low, falling for a fourth straight month.

“Optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished,” said Stephanie Guichard, the board’s senior economist. That dip in confidence, she added, reflects rising anxiety about the economy and labor market creeping into consumers’ views of their own financial outlook.

Stubborn trade uncertainty and growing recession fears have also put pressure on household spending. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon recently noted these “stressed behaviors” are now clearly visible in consumer habits.

“You can see that the money runs out before the month is gone,” he said. “You can see that people are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month.”

None of today’s data — or tomorrow’s inflation readout — will wipe away the anxiety many consumers are feeling. But together, they might offer something investors haven’t had in a while: a little clarity.