What recession? Black Friday blowout masks a dangerous debt surge
As economists debate whether a recession is imminent, Americans are showing little hesitation at the checkout counter, spending a record sum on Black Friday, though signs suggest much of that surge is being fueled by debt.
Data from Salesforce, Mastercard SpendingPulse, and Adobe Analytics all pointed to record-setting Black Friday spending last weekend.
Salesforce reported $18 billion in total Black Friday sales, while Adobe Analytics said online spending alone reached $11.8 billion.
Meanwhile, Mastercard SpendingPulse reported that U.S. retail sales excluding automobiles rose 4.1% on Black Friday, with e-commerce surging 10.4% compared with a year earlier.
A debt-fueled boost?
The headline numbers are undeniably strong and may be enough to keep the consumer-led economy from slipping into a recession in the near term. However, there’s an important caveat: a significant share of that spending appears to be fueled by credit.
One indication comes from a survey by MoneyLion, which found that 84% of shoppers planned to use credit cards to cover their holiday expenses amid persistently high prices. Another 30% said they expected to rely on controversial buy now, pay later programs.
The survey also found that average holiday spending is expected to top $2,000, underscoring both the strength of demand and the growing reliance on borrowed money.
That reliance is being driven in part by financial anxiety. More than a quarter of respondents, 27%, said they feel pressure to spend money they do not have.
Americans are drowning in debt
While debt-fueled holiday shopping is nothing new, the scale of the surge is striking, especially in light of rising household debt driven by high and increasing balances on credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages.
According to the latest report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, total U.S. household debt climbed by $197 billion in the third quarter of 2025 to a record $18.59 trillion.
Credit card balances alone rose by $24 billion over the quarter to $1.23 trillion, up nearly 6% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, auto-loan balances were little changed, holding steady at about $1.66 trillion.
The borrowing surge adds a layer of fragility beneath the headline-grabbing strength in holiday spending.
A growing reliance on credit cards and deferred-payment programs suggests that much of that resilience is being financed rather than earned, leaving households more exposed if economic conditions deteriorate.
Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman described the trend as a symptom of a “K-shaped economy, where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.”